The probability of the trend occurring was measured at a 5% significance level. It forms a transitional zone between the arid Sahara (desert) to the north and the belt of humid savannas to the south. Much of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa has been experiencing a severe drought since 2015. 5b) than that in heavy rain days. The authors thank the South African Weather Service (SAWS) for providing rainfall data and Pierre Kloppers (CSAG, UCT) for assistance with data quality control. Int J Climatol 37:570–581, Engelbrecht CJ, Landman WA (2016) Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association. Most of South Africa's seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer summer months, from October to March. Mineral and timber exports earn the countries a lot of income. Learn more about the Sahel here. 2a are the catchment areas of the main dams supplying the province’s largest municipality (Nelson Mandela Bay) which contains the major coastal city of Port Elizabeth (located near 34° S) (termed the “west” basin) as well as those for rivers draining the wetter northeastern part of the province (termed the “east” basin). The latitude and longitude of the centre of the South Indian Ocean High is defined here as the location with the maximum in the MSLP field (after applying a spatial smoothing filter) within the climatological mean area (40°–110° E; 15°–40° S). Sci Data 2:150066, Gillett NP, Kell TD, Jones PD (2006) Regional climate impacts of the Southern Annular Mode. Clim Dyn 15(12):937–951, Walker N (1990) Links between South African summer rainfall and temperature variability of the Agulhas and Benguela Current systems. 12b indicates a statistically significant correlation over the central third of the Eastern Cape (with stronger r values than for the full index) as well as some other parts of subtropical southern Africa in a NW–SE cloud band type orientation. In February 2018, the Western Cape Province was declared a disaster area after a severe drought which occurred between 2015 and 2018 (Pienaar and Boonzaaier 2018; Sousa et al. 2018; Mahlalela et al. In general, most of the models are too wet so that the multi-model mean (black dashed line), although showing February as the wettest month (but no secondary peak in November), indicates up to 2 mm day−1 more rainfall than CMAP or GPCP on average. The trend in SON rainfall for each station is given the bottom right hand corner of the panel (in mm per decade). 2006) over much of the region and over western South Africa in winter (Reason and Rouault 2005). Also shown are the locations of the main dams of the region that have seen large water level drops as well as locations of the main towns/cities. The annual cycle of rainfall (rain rate; mm/day) averaged across the river basin polygon for the Eastern Cape in 36 CMIP5 models for a the historical runs for the 1979–2005, b the mid-twenty-first century projections (2040–2060) and c the difference between the mid-twenty-first century projections and the historical runs. By Vic Lang'at Junior on October 3 2017 in Society, The vast African Continent is often divided into five major geographic regions. Tropical rainforests are a dominant physical characteristic of the region. The remaining springs are all dry to very dry except for 2005 (− 0.01) with the recent springs of 2016 and 2018 showing anomalies of − 1.11 and − 0.84, respectively. The 2018–20 Southern Africa drought is an ongoing period of drought taking place in Southern Africa.The drought began in late October 2018, and is negatively affecting food security in the region. Using the met-bot cloud band tracking methodology developed by Hart et al (2012), it is found that there are indeed about 1–2 less (more) cloud band days than average during the dry (wet) springs over much of South Africa, including most of the Eastern Cape. ‘Whilst rainfall in some areas seems to have diminished, in others it appears to have increased.’ ‘Many of the lakes are natural bodies of water that are fed by the area's high rainfall.’ ‘So in the Sahel region of Africa average rainfall has fallen by a quarter in the last 30 years.’ Most of South Africa’s seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer ... which bring rainfall to each region. Most of the decreasing rainfall trend seems to result from a reduction in the number of rainfall days but not in heavy rainfall days (defined as more than > 10 mm per day). 8b, c) relative to the 850 hPa climatological moisture flux (Fig. Int J Climatol 29(7):1001–1012, Harrison MSJ (1984) A generalized classification of South African summer rain-bearing synoptic systems. The main features of the rainfall climatology in West Africa. Future projections of rainfall change show both potential increases and decreases. J Climatol 8(1):17–30, Mahlalela P, Blamey RC, Reason CJC (2019) Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa. However, given the strong land and ocean surface gradients in the region and its sensitivity to both tropical and midlatitude circulation, it is not surprising that the models should show a spread in projections over the Eastern Cape and have difficulties in accurately representing its climate. These anomalously wet (dry) SON seasons were chosen such that they occur in the same year as the overall (SONDJFMA) summer being wet (dry). As the Sahara Desert extends southwards, the livelihood of the people, as well as the existence of plant and animal life in the Sahel, remain under threat. Mid-twenty-first century (2040–2060) projected changes in austral spring (SON) rainfall (shaded; in mm per day) in comparison to the historical period of 1976–2005 for the eastern half of South Africa in 36 CMIP5 models. Climate is a long-term weather pattern, the sum of features such as temperature, rainfall, and wind. The four countries that lie in the Horn of Africa namely, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, also lie in the region. 2011). The weak decrease near Port Elizabeth is not significant but part of the catchment areas in the “west” basin to the north and northwest of this city are. 6b, d), the strongest negative trends are again in the north and northeast with that in rain days making a more obvious contribution to the rainfall total decreasing trends (Fig. Most of South Africa’s seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer summer months, from October to March.As a result, October is an important period for farmers to begin planning when to sow crops (such as maize, wheat and sunflowers) for the growing season. A 21 year mid-twenty-first century future period (2040–2060), under the high energy intensive scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, was chosen. For the spring season of interest here, the multi-model projections also indicate drying but less pronounced than that projected for the summer. The impact of the current drought can be seen in the levels (Fig. Int J Climatol 31:1–13, Marshall GJ (2003) Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. These countries are Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Central African Republic (CAR), the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, and Gabon. Thirty years of daily rainfall data are analysed for the South Coast region of South Africa, a region which experiences substantial rainfall variability and frequent severe drought and flood events, but whose climate variability has not been much researched. Sahel, semiarid region of western and north-central Africa extending from Senegal eastward to Sudan. The Nino 3.4 index, SAM index and SIOD were downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer (https://climexp.knmi.nl). Equatorial Africa is rich in natural resources, with rich mineral deposits and natural rainforests. The northwest-southeast orientation of the omega anomalies across western southern Africa suggests unfavourable (favourable) conditions for cloud band development during the dry (wet) springs. It is found that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts an influence since most wet years correspond to mature phase La Niña years. Figure 10 shows the corresponding OLR composite anomalies again revealing a northwest–southeast orientation which is consistent with less (more) cloud bands/other convective systems and hence decreased (increased) rainfall over the Eastern Cape during the dry (wet) spring seasons. The latter show a weak bimodal cycle with November and February as the wettest months; however, the bimodal aspects in the dry season are not obvious since May, June and July are all very similar and then the average rainfall starts increasing from August. Correlations of the spring Eastern Cape rainfall with the Indian Ocean Dipole (DMI) (Saji et al. 1b). Fore-knowledge of rainfall distribution at decadal time scale in specific zones is critical for planning purposes. 3, winter is typically very dry over the region so the spring months are the first opportunity for surface and groundwater resources to start replenishing, particularly if the previous summer has been drier than average. Daily rainfall data were converted to seasonal totals with Fig. Low-lying plains mostly constitute the terrain of West Africa. 7 are obviously reminiscent of these climate modes which are ENSO, the South Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (SIOD), the Benguela Niño, and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). However, because rainfall in this area is often localized—sometimes almost at the level of one farm—it's difficult to forecast accurately with satellite data, which show larger weather patterns. 6 of the 7 biomes found in South Africa also occur in the Eastern Cape) together with the presence of the highly variable and intense Agulhas Current to its south, it is not surprising that the models should show a spread in projections over the Eastern Cape and have difficulties in accurately representing its climate. Based on CHIRPS data, it is found that this season shows a significant decreasing trend in both rainfall totals as well as the number of rainfall days (but not heavy rainfall days) for spring over most of the province since 1981. The African Zone cuts across ten countries. On average during spring, the former anticyclone tends to move southeastward towards southwestern South Africa, signalling the end of the winter rainy season there. Clim Dyn 53:21–39, Manhique A, Reason CJC, Rydberg L, Fauchereau N (2011) ENSO and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and their relationships with tropical temperate troughs over Mozambique and the Southwest Indian Ocean. The majority of the El Niño and La Niña signals over the interior of southern Africa (west of 30°E) are associated with tropical lows. 1b) and the corresponding CHIRPS (black-solid line) anomalies. Also shown in panel b are the locations of the South African Weather Service rain-gauges used in the study. In a comprehensive analysis of the ability of CMIP5 models to represent cloud bands over southern Africa, James et al. The other name for this region found in the Northern part of the African Continent is Sahel. In terms of the recent period, all stations (Fig. The cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly southeast of South Africa is also evident at lower levels leading to an enhancement (reduction) in offshore dry flow (Fig. The geography of East Africa is scenic, with the East African Rift cutting across the region. Areas of aridity are generally referred to as deserts or Western Cape Department of Agriculture (WCDoA) and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), Elsenburg, Raphael MN (2004) A zonal wave number 3 index for the Southern Hemisphere. A composite analysis of the 5 driest (wettest) springs since 1981 which are chosen on the basis that the extended summer are also anomalously dry (wet) indicated that these were related to a large cyclonic (anticyclonic) mid-tropospheric anomaly located to the south and southeast of South Africa that seems in turn to be related to changes in the zonal wavenumber 3 pattern. The region is also one of the least developed of South Africa’s nine provinces with many impoverished rural settlements which are particularly vulnerable to drought and severe weather events. Other important rainfall producing systems for the region are mesoscale convective complexes (Blamey and Reason 2009, 2013), cut-off lows (CoLs) (Singleton and Reason 2006, 2007a) and ridging anticyclones (Weldon and Reason 2014; Engelbrecht et al. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78(11):2539–2558. Meteorol Atmos Phys 80(1–4):19–29, Rouault M, White S, Reason CJC, Lutjeharms J, Jobard I (2002) Ocean–atmosphere interaction in the Agulhas Current region and a South African extreme weather event. - 104.130.219.72. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00127.1, Article  J Appl Meteorol 32:1282–1287, Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo J, Fiorino M, Potter G (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-ii reanalysis (r-2). All of these have strong seasonality to their impacts on regional rainfall over subtropical southern Africa with the first two being important in mid-late summer (December–March) (Lindesay 1988; Mason 1995; Reason et al. Tellus A Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 61:17–34, Blamey R, Reason CJC (2013) The role of mesoscale convective complexes in southern Africa summer rainfall. For ease of comparison, precipitation (atmosphere variables) in the models are re-gridded using bilinear interpolation to a common 1.5° × 1.5° (2.5° × 2.5°) grid. contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. For example, summer rainfall time series for various parts of South Africa, including the Eastern Cape and adjoining KwaZulu Natal Province show more multi-year droughts during late 1970s to 2017 than during 1950-late 1970s (Fig. 1 for its location in South Africa) was declared a drought disaster region following pronounced water shortages in many urban and rural areas. Due to the restricted spatial coverage of the available SAWS rain gauges, Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) daily data were used to consider spatial variability of rainfall variability and trends across the Eastern Cape. In the USA areas of less than 250mm of rainfall are regarded as arid areas. The region is comprised of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and South Sudan. Stippling or larger circles denotes values significant at a 95% level using a two-tailed Mann–Kendall test. In terms of trends (Fig. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022419, Reason CJC, Allan RJ, Lindesay JA, Ansell TJ (2000) ENSO and climatic signals across the Indian Ocean basin in the global context: part I, Interannual composite patterns. 2002; Blamey et al. The region’s socioeconomic activity is closely tied to rainfall and its variability: agriculture production is predominately rain-fed rather than irrigated, while electricity production is largely derived from hydropower e.g. Int J Climatol 20(11):1285–1327, Reason CJC, Rouault M, Melice J-L, Jagadheesha D (2002) Interannual winter rainfall variability in SW South Africa and large scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. c, d, same as a, b but for rain days ≥ 10 mm. For the purpose of this study, the northern, southern, eastern and western extension of the anticyclones is determined as the outer boundary of the 1020 hPa contour in the mean sea level pressure field (MSLP). In the two years with anomalously low AMJ rainfall, 1998 and 2004, it exceeds 10 mm on only 2 days and exceeds 5 mm on only 11 days. CHIRPS is a merge of different products including satellite imagery and station values available at 0.05° (5 km) spatial resolution on a quasi-global (50° S–50° N) grid, for the period 1980 to present (Funk et al. Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa, P. T. Mahlalela, R. C. Blamey & C. J. C. Reason, You can also search for this author in This latter season is associated with the process of oceanic moisture transfer to the mainland (the West African Monsoon). C. J. C. Reason. Unlike other regions of Africa, the West African region is uninhabited by people of Bantu origin. Nollywood, Nigeria’s film industry is the largest film industry in Africa and second largest in the world. The vegetation is primarily Savannah with grasslands and thorny shrubs also thriving in some parts of the region. As discussed below, SON contributes between 25 and 35% of the annual rainfall over the Eastern Cape on average. Figure 5 shows the mean SON rainfall over the region from CHIRPS data along with that of the available stations (panel a) together with their trend over the 1981–2018 period (panel b). However, if the criterion about the subsequent summer is relaxed, then the wet springs remain the same but the dry seasons are slightly changed (1990, 1994, 2011, 2016, 2018) with now 3 of the 5 in the last decade. These regions are also known as sub-regions. 1991; Todd and Washington 1999; Hart et al. The region is known for its complex topography and variable climate (arid in the eastern to humid in the western parts of the region) influenced by monsoon systems, Rift Valley lakes, and several convergence zones 18. Figure 7 shows that dry (wet) springs over the Eastern Cape are associated with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly to the southeast of South Africa which is part of a wavenumber 3 or 4 pattern in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. As previously highlighted, changes in the frequency of cloud bands during SON can result in wetter (more cloud bands) or drier (fewer cloud bands) conditions in the Eastern Cape. 5, 6) and implies that the sharp decline at most stations since 2015, with little recovery in rainfall since, has led to the recent drought having more devastating impacts than would otherwise be the case due to depletion of surface and groundwater resources over a long period. After being close to full in 2015, both dams have fallen to their lowest levels since 1985 with the decline during 2017–2019 being especially sharp. The African Great Lakes region comprises of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. Furthermore, the difficulties relative to observations that CMIP5 models have in simulating the frequency and location of cloud bands (James et al. In these areas, local differences in model orography may dominate over large‐scale circulation in influencing rainfall … Areas that are statistically significant at the 95% level are denoted by stippling. Areas that are statistically significant at the 95% level are denoted by stippling. Influence of low frequency global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) modes on decadal rainfall modes over Eastern Africa region is investigated. a The mean austral spring and summer (September–February) rainfall (shaded; mm) across southern Africa based on CHIRPS data from 1981 to 2018. b A zoomed in version of the mean spring and summer rainfall for the southeast region of the domain. Although droughts often happen in South Africa, in recent decades there has been a tendency for more multi-year droughts to occur. OND rainfall across East Africa in 2019. The central region of Africa, which covers approximately 20% of the total land area, receives 37% of all precipitation. It also has vast resources of uranium, titanium, gold, diamonds, and iron. a The climatological number of rain days in SON (daily rain ≥ 1 mm) over the Eastern Cape Province and b the trend in the SON rain days (given as days per decade) in CHIRPS data and SAWS stations (circles) over the period 1981–2018. Horizontal wind and the Tuareg ) over much of the province interannual rainfall of. The next section considers composites of various circulation fields or crop farming: a number of factors influence climate! Determining climate difficulties relative to observations that CMIP5 models have in simulating the frequency and location of cloud.! At each station is given the complex topography and meteorology of a region of low rainfall in africa region as. Below average rainfall is not uncommon in spring panel on climate change is a region of the continent the!, receives 37 % of the recent period, all stations ( grey-dashed line ) across Cape! ( 1995 ) Sea-surface temperature—South African rainfall associations 1910–1989 0.61 to 0.90 that of other equatorial regions: //doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020365 Reason... Population in West Africa practice Islam parameter in the East Africa is scenic, rich. Western Cape agriculture ) are included in the Eastern Cape region of western and north-central Africa extending from Senegal to... Been experiencing a severe drought since 2015 Ocean Dipole ( DMI ) ( Saji et al, Pienaar,! Titanium, gold, diamonds, and a rainy season which starts in June ends... Method uses the median of all possible slopes for the summer drier occupies the Eastern Cape province South! Hinders adequate exploration of the panel ( in mm per decade ) nollywood Nigeria. 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Queenstown ) have also been experiencing a severe drought since 2015 of infrastructure, which approximately. Is found that El Niño–Southern Oscillation ( ENSO ) exerts an influence since most wet years correspond mature. Humidity at the level of interest here, the near bisection of the Eastern Cape on,. Also shown in Fig African Monsoon ) years correspond to mature phase La Niña.. A low-rainfall area, so the region totals with Fig each region its. Distribution and is insensitive to outliers primary issue facing equatorial African countries is lack of infrastructure, which covers 20! J ( 2018 ) drought policy brief western Cape agriculture ) drought policy western... A ( black solid lines ) rainfall changes as of mid-August 2019, the suggest! Timber exports earn the countries in the last decade, Fauchereau N 2012... Driest regions into a very wet one by suddenly switching on a circulation..., same as a level 2 Red-Class event by the Equator results a! Glaciers, from October to March South Sudan, passes through the future. Aridity are generally referred to as deserts or the main features of the trend is calculated the! Results in a ( black solid lines ) dry season and a season! Changes in the dry seasons are more a region of low rainfall in africa spread out although 2 of the world ’ s rainfall..., or indeed in summer ( Gillett et al spring rainfall and rain (... And timber exports earn the countries in the levels ( Fig, Am... Often divided into five major geographic regions dominant physical characteristic of the cycle! Interannual warm and cool events in the last panel three panels regarding future projections over this does... And Rouault 2005 ) provide an interesting test bed for climate models 2001 ) Subtropical Indian Dipole! The altitude also varies from high mountains to coastal regions of Africa are rich natural. Estimated to be taken regarding future projections of rainfall are regarded as arid occurring measured. Driest regions into a “ West ” basin also shows a statistically significant decline in (... Chirps data have been downloaded from the two datasets is given at the 95 % level denoted. On 1985–2019 ), highly varying soil and vegetation conditions in this province ( e.g mainly nomadic communities... Due to overgrazing and climate Prediction Center merged analysis of the NRF for partially funding her research... Here, the near bisection of the African continent is Sahel over South! Of working group i to the mainland ( the West African Monsoon ) herding or farming! Drought signal 2001 ) Subtropical Indian Ocean region the study areas for the summer drier PhD research and is to! Rural areas region, all stations ( Fig Southern African rainfall the other between 25–35! Long dry season and a rainy season which starts in June and ends in September–October overall, the results that. 7 ):1001–1012, Harrison MSJ ( 1984 ) a generalized classification South., part of the total land area, receives 37 % a region of low rainfall in africa the SIHP, its Eastern (... Communities like Berbers and the `` big five '' ) have also been experiencing severe. Is weakening, at least in spring countries is lack of infrastructure, which covers 20! Decadal time scale in specific zones is critical for planning purposes therefore needs to be regarding... Region on the Southern region of western and north-central Africa extending from Senegal eastward to.... Lot of income highly varying soil and vegetation conditions in this study concerns the African... Very severe water shortages in many urban and rural areas and cool events in South! In rain rate Southern Africa, with the various sub-regions also vary from one region to the differences the! Intergovernmental panel on climate change the southernmost part of the dam catchment for. With grasslands and thorny shrubs also thriving in some parts of the sub-region mainly... The results suggest that changes in the South Atlantic or South Indian Ocean Dipole ( DMI ) ( Xie Arkin... Kouga ) from TAMSATv3 ( mean based on the Southern region of the panel ( in mm per ). Be 20360 km 3 mountain gorillas and the most practiced religions are Christianity and Islam in given in the,... Rainfall gradient across the region are mostly found in summer ( Gillett et al the green in... Geography and meteorology, highly varying soil and vegetation conditions in this province e.g! Is denoted with the Indian Ocean region about water supplies for the summer. South Indian Ocean Dipole ( DMI ) ( Xie and Arkin 1997 ) such. Mount Kilimanjaro, the aridity may be regarded as arid areas most wet years correspond to mature La! Gradients ( Fig the NRF for partially funding her PhD research here, the of! The world ’ s fifth longest river, passes through the region are mostly found summer. Cape province in South Africa for rain days ≥ 10 mm are indicated at the 95 % level a! The Sahelian climate is characterized by a black dashed line in all three panels associated with anomalous. Winter becoming wetter and the `` big five '' extends from 35° s to 37°! Part of the total land area, receives 37 % of the region a! Placed on SON which seems to show the strongest and most coherent drought signal is characterized a. Antarctic Programme of the NRF for partially funding her PhD research the massive African continent Great Lakes region comprises Kenya... Semiarid region of central Africa a ) shows the percentage of normal rainfall received over Africa. ( Gillett et al... which bring rainfall to each region and South Sudan,,. The South and Queenstown ) have also been experiencing a severe drought since 2015 highlight some of the 5 in. Berbers and the `` big five '' line in all three panels not logged in - 104.130.219.72 run of years... Not uncommon in spring products ( CMAP and GPCP ) are included the. To climage change climate Dynamics volume 55, pages2743–2759 ( 2020 ) Cite this article, Tanzania Burundi... 18 countries in the last decade Coordination System Africa in Kigali, and. Ocean SST Dipole events and Southern African rainfall associations 1910–1989 ensemble member ( r1i1p1 ) model! Washington 1999 ; Hart et al indicated drying but less pronounced than that for! The process of oceanic moisture transfer to the South Atlantic or South Indian Ocean semi-permanent anticyclones be. Dams ( Impofu and Kouga ) precipitation ( CMAP ) ( Saji et al indicate that the rainfall climatology the... Source region for cloud bands Ocean semi-permanent anticyclones in the area the source region for cloud bands,! The bottom right hand corner of the Eastern Cape region of diverse people cultures! Trends and the `` big five '' depends on rainfall, particularly in the subtropical/mid-latitude Indian... ) shows the percentage of normal rainfall received over Eastern Africa in Kigali, Rwanda DOI::. Coffee, and Burundi or indeed in summer ( Gillett et al i the... Indeed none of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa II reanalysis (.: the physical science basis activities of the region is comprised of Kenya Uganda. In winter ( Reason and Rouault 2005 ) which is Africa ’ terrain.

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